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Forthcoming in the next issue

29/07/2011

Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic

K. Daniskova, J. Fidrmuc

Abstract: The New Keynesian Phillips Curve has become an important part of modern monetary policy models. It describes the relationship between inflation and real marginal cost, which is derived from micro-founded models with rational expectations, sticky prices, and forward and backward looking behaviour. This answers the previous critique of the Phillips Curve. We estimate several specifications of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Czech Republic between 1996 and 2009. We show that the GMM suffers under the problem of weak instruments leading to biased estimates. In turn, the FIML is robust and yields significant estimates of structural parameters implying a strong forward looking behaviour.

Keywords: Inflation, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, marginal costs, output gap, real unit labour costs
JEL classification: E31, E52, C32 

Tax Morale, Entrepreneurship, and the Irregular Economy

G. Lisi, M. Pugno

Abstract: This paper incorporates tax morale into a search and matching model of equilibrium unemployment, with on-the-job search, extended to both the irregular sector and entrepreneurship. Tax morale is modelled as a social norm for tax compliance which renders evasion costly. The moral cost of tax evasion (the strength of the social norm) is negatively related to the fraction of entrepreneurs that evades taxes. Precisely, if the relationship is non-linear, multiple equilibria may emerge, thus accounting for differences in-between regions and countries in the size of the irregular sector. The ``good'' equilibrium is in fact characterised, with respect to the ``bad'' one, by a smaller irregular sector and a stronger tax morale.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, tax evasion, tax morale, job search theory, irregular/shadow/hidden/underground economy
JEL classification: E26, H26, J64, L26, K42 

Quest for the Best: How to Measure Central Bank Independence and Show its Relationship with Inflation

A. Maslowska

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to check measures for explanatory power of central bank independence (CBI) in a series of econometric tests. Measures of central bank autonomy offer a useful expression of the extent to which a central bank is able to keep the government away from influencing a change in the inflation rate. The more a measure represents this idea, the easier one can find a relation between the CBI value and the inflation rate. Results of estimations show that proxies by Grilli et al. (1991) are strong regressors of inflation rate, contrary to those by Cukierman et al. (1992). Moreover, estimation results challenge the belief that divergences in CBI-inflation rate estimations are due to differences in institutional features across samples of countries, not to differences in legal proxies of central bank independence. Already results from a homogenous group of industrial countries indicate that some indices perform ``better'' than others.

Keywords: central bank independence, political autonomy, economic autonomy, institution, estimation
JEL classification: E58, E52

Equilibrium Solution in a Game between a Cooperative and its Members

C. Bertini, G. Gambarelli, A. Scarelli, Z. Varga

Abstract: In the paper a game-theoretical model is set up to describe the conflict situation in which the members of a marketing cooperative may take advantage of an external market price, higher than that offered by the cooperative. Under appropriate conditions on the penalty strategy of the cooperative, the faithfulness of all members will provide a Nash equilibrium for the considered game, which at the same time also is an attractive solution, with the cooperative as a distinguished player.

Keywords: Cooperatives, Game Theory, Nash equilibria
JEL classification: C02, C70, Q13

Estimating the Efficiency of Voting in Big-Size Committees

P. Dolezel

Abstract: In a simple voting committee with a finite number of members, in which each member has a voting weight, the voting rule is defined by the quota (a minimal number of voting weights is required to approve a proposal), and the efficiency of voting in the committee is defined as the ratio of the number of winning coalitions (subsets of the set of members with total voting weights no less than the quota) to the number of all possible coalitions. A straightforward way of calculating the efficiency is based on the full enumeration of all coalitions and testing whether or not they are winning. The enumeration of all coalitions is NP, a complete problem (the time required for computations is the exponential function of the size of the committee) and is unusable for very large committees. In this paper we are developing three algorithms (two exact and one heuristic) to compute the efficiency for committees with high number of voters within a reasonable timeframe. Algorithms are applied for evaluating the voting efficiency in the Lower House of the Czech Parliament, in the European Parliament and in the Council of Ministers of the EU.

Keywords: efficiency of voting, committee, European Parliament, Council of Ministers of the EU
JEL Classification: D71, D72 

Skill and Chance in Insurance Policies

V. Fragnelli, M. E. Marina

Abstract: In a game theoretical setting it is possible to assign a relative measurement of the skill required to each player for maximizing his payoff in a casino game; according to this approach we analyze the relevance of skill and chance in an insurance contract, both for the insurance company and for the customer.

Keywords: skill, casino game, insurance
JEL classification: C72, G22, J24 

Existence of Equilibrium Prices for Discontinuous Excess Demand Correspondences

V. Scalzo

Abstract: The aim of the paper is to obtain the existence of equilibrium prices in economies where the excess demand correspondences - differently from the usual condition - are not necessarily upper semicontinuous. So, in our setting, we cannot use the Gale-Debreu-Nikaido Lemma. The existence of equilibrium prices is obtained for discontinuous excess demand correspondences which obey to a condition like of the weak axiom of reveled preferences.

Keywords: discontinuous excess demand correspondences, existence of equilibrium prices, weak axiom of revealed preferences.
JEL classification: C62, D51


Statistics

07/04/2011

Vol. 4 (2010)
  • 17 accepted articles (12 international, 5 local)
  • 14 rejected articles (10 international, 4 local)
  • Acceptance rate is 55% (17/31); not significantly different for international articles (54%, 12/22) and local articles (56%, 5/9).
  • The ratio of international to local articles (for accepted articles) is 71:29 (12/17 vs. 5/17).
Vol. 2-4 (2008-2010)
  • 50 accepted articles (37 international, 13 local)
  • 36 rejected articles (26 international, 10 local)
  • Acceptance rate is 58% (50/86); not significantly different for international articles (59%, 37/63) and local articles (56%, 13/23).
  • The ratio of international to local articles (for accepted articles) is 74:26 (37/50 vs. 13/50).

Notes: The list does not include articles that are currently under review (15 international articles, 4 local articles). We consider a paper to be local if affiliation of any author is institution located in the Czech Republic. Otherwise, it is classified as an international article. In the statistics, we do not include the pilot year 2007 (Vol. 1).


The Czech Economic Review, Vol. 5, No. 1

08/03/2011

A new issue of the Czech Economic Review is available online. See table of contents:

Editorial

Editorial to the special issue on Political Economy of Financial Crisis
Fidrmuc, Jarko; Horváth, Roman
AUCO Czech Economic Review 5 (1), 5-5

Special issue: Political economy of financial crisis

Welfare Improving Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Hughes Hallett, Andrew; Libich, Jan; Stehlík, Petr
AUCO Czech Economic Review 5 (1), 7-26

Economic and Financial Integration of CEECs: The Impact of Financial Instability
Albulescu, Claudiu T.
AUCO Czech Economic Review 5 (1), 27-45

The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis
Fidrmuc, Jarko; Süss, Philipp J.
AUCO Czech Economic Review 5 (1), 46-63

Foreign Bank Presence and Bank Spreads: Evidence from Turkey
Yalcinkaya Koyuncu, Julide
AUCO Czech Economic Review 5 (1), 64-75

Discussions

Is the Political Economy Stable or Chaotic?
Schofield, Norman
AUCO Czech Economic Review 5 (1), 76-93

To view, download, or recommend a single article, click on the article title. To unsubscribe, please fill in the form in the left column (Table of Contents Alert) on the journal homepage


Special issue "Political economy of financial crisis" in print

28/02/2011

Editorial

Jarko Fidrmuc, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Osteuropa-Institut and Comenius University
Roman Horváth, Charles University

Welfare Improving Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Andrew Hughes Hallett, George Mason University and University of St Andrews
Jan Libich, La Trobe University and CAMA
Petr Stehlík, University of West Bohemia

Abstract: Should independent monetary and fiscal policies coordinate their actions and/or targets? To examine this question the paper considers a simple reduced-form model in which monetary and fiscal policies are formally independent, but still interdependent - through their mutual spillovers. The analysis shows that the medium-run equilibrium levels of inflation, deficit, and output depend on the two policies’ (i) potency (elasticity of output with respect to the policy instruments); (ii) ambition (the level of their output target); and (iii) conservatism (inflation vs output volatility aversion). What matters is however the relative degrees of these characteristics across the two policies rather than the absolute degrees for each policy. This implies that coordination of monetary and fiscal policy is superior to non-cooperative Nash behaviour. In particular, we find that ambition-coordination is more important than conservatism-coordination in terms of avoiding medium-run imbalances due to a tug-of-war between the policies. For this reason, and perhaps surprisingly, ambition-coordination can be welfare improving even if the policymakers’ objectives are idiosyncratic, and their coordinated output targets differ from the socially optimal value.

Keywords: coordination, interaction, monetary policy, .scal policy, central bank, government, inflation, deficit
JEL classification: E61, E63

Economic and Financial Integration of CEECs: The Impact of Financial Instability

Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, “Politehnica” University of Timişoara and Poitiers University

Abstract: The recent financial crisis had a powerful impact upon the European countries’ economies, in particular on those from Central and Eastern Europe, with some small exceptions. Thus, applying a panel data approach for a large sample of CEECs, we demonstrate that financial instability negatively influences these countries economic and financial integration. If instability is measured by means of a financial instability index, we have used two classical indicators for the economic integration, namely trade openness and trade intensity index. Indicators such as the interest rates co-movement and the asset share of foreign-owned banks were chosen to calculate financial integration. We highlight the fact that the crisis events hinder the process of CEECs’ integration into the EU, deepening the economic gaps between more and less developed EU members.

Keywords: Financal instability, financial instability index, economic and financial integration, CEECs
JEL classification: C33, F15, F36, G01

The Outbreak of the Russian Banking Crisis

Jarko Fidrmuc, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Osteuropa-Institut and Comenius University
Philipp Johann Süß, University of Munich

Abstract: Owing to a combination of domestic, regional and international factors, Russian banks have been strongly influenced by the worldwide financial crisis which started in the second half of 2008. In this paper, we estimate an early warning model for the Russian banking crisis. In a first step, we identify 47 Russian banks which failed after September 2008. Using the Bankscope dataset, we then show that balance sheet indicators were informative as early as in 2006 and 2007 about possible failures of these banks. Especially equity, net interest revenues, return on average equity, net loans, and loan loss reserves are identified as the early indicators with high predictive power.
Keywords: Banking and financial crisis, early warning models, Russia, logit
JEL classification: G33, G21, C25

Foreign Bank Presence and Bank Spreads: Evidence from Turkey

Julide Yalcinkaya Koyuncu, Bilecik University

Abstract: Using bank-level data for Turkey, this paper examines whether foreign banks are able to operate with lower spreads and whether the overall level of foreign bank participation in the banking system lowers spreads among domestic banks. Empirical analysis yields that foreign banks are able to charge lower spreads than domestic banks in Turkey. However, findings indicate that the overall level of foreign bank participation in the Turkish banking system does not affect spreads of domestic banks directly. Instead, the overall level of foreign bank participation in the banking system affects the spreads indirectly through its effects on overhead expenses. Overhead expenses of all banks decrease as foreign bank participation increases.

Keywords: Foreign banks, Turkey, emerging markets
JEL classification: G32, N25


Forthcoming discussion article

28/02/2011

Is the Political Economy stable or chaotic?

Norman Schofield, Washington University

Abstract: Recent events in the global economy have caused many writers to argue that the market is driven by animal spirits, by irrational exuberance or speculation. At the same time, the economic downturn has apparently caused many voters in the United States, and other countries, to change their opinion about the proper role of government. Unfortunately, there does not exist a general equilibrium model of the political economy, combining a formal model of the existence, and convergence to a price equilibrium, as well as an equilibrium model of political choice. One impediment to such a theory is the so-called chaos theorem which suggests that existence of a political equilibrium is non-generic. This paper surveys results in the theory of dynamical systems, emphasizing the role of structural stability and chaos. We consider models of celestial mechanics where the notion of chaos first developed, and then examine applications in models of climate change and economics. There is discussion of the past influences of climate on human society, and particularly how agriculture developed during the “holocene”, the past ten thousand years of benign climate. The recent period of globalization is likened to the holocene, and the question is raised whether future climate change may bring economic and political chaos.

Keywords: Economic uncertainty, climate change, political disorder
JEL classification: H10


The Czech Economic Review, Vol. 4, No. 3

14/11/2010

A new issue of the Czech Economic Review is available online. See table of contents:

Editorial

Editorial to the special issue on Econophysics of Markets and Economic Networks
Vošvrda, Miloslav
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 234-235

Articles

Keynesian Macrodynamics: Convergence, Roads to Instability and the Emergence of Complex Business Fluctuations
Chiarella, Carl; Hung, Hing; Flaschel, Peter
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 236-262

Nonlinear Inflation Expectations and Endogenous Fluctuations
Gomes, Orlando
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 263-280

Tail Behavior of the Central European Stock Markets during the Financial Crisis
Baruník, Jozef; Vácha, Lukáš; Vošvrda, Miloslav
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 281-294

Forecasting the Quantiles of Daily Equity Returns Using Realized Volatility: Evidence from the Czech Stock Market
Bubák, Vít
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 295-314

Rescaled Range Analysis and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis: Finite Sample Properties and Confidence Intervals
Krištoufek, Ladislav
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 315-329

Dynamics of Stock Market Correlations
Kenett, Dror Y.; Shapira, Yoash; Madi, Asaf; Bransburg-Zabary, Sharron; Gur-Gershgoren, Gitit; Ben-Jacob, Eshel
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 330-340

Book review

Book review: L. E. Calvet & A. J. Fisher, Multifractal Volatility: Theory, Forecasting, and Pricing
Baruník, Jozef
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 341-343

Reports

Workshop: Voting, Power, and Manipulation
Doležel, Pavel
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (3), 344-345

To view, download, or recommend a single article, click on the article title. To unsubscribe, please fill in the form in the left column (Table of Contents Alert) on the journal homepage.


Scopus

01/11/2010

The independent reviewers of the Content Selection and Advisory Board (CSAB) have completed the year-long review of our journal, and the Board has advised that the AUCO Czech Economic Review will be accepted for inclusion in Scopus. The articles shall be available in this database once Source Collection Department sets up subscriptions for this title.


Citations tracker

09/08/2010

We have used Scopus, CitEc and Google Scholar to map the network of citations to our journal:

Journals

Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences, Group Decision and Negotiation, Control and Cybernetics, Post-Communist Economies, Central European Journal of Operations Research, Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, Economics Bulletin, Financial Theory and Practice, Studies and Scientific Researches - Economic Edition, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Politicka ekonomie, Ekonomický časopis, AUCO Czech Economic Review

Working paper series

European Investment Bank, CESifo Working Paper Series, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Papers, IZA Discussion Papers, Center in Political Economy of Washington University, Seoul National University, Universite de Saint-Etienne, Ecole Polytecnique, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Czech National Bank Research Department

Book series and theses

Theory and Decision Library (Springer), University of California, Berkeley (Undergraduate Honors Thesis), Högskolan Dalarna (Master Thesis)


The AUCO Czech Economic Review, Vol. 4, No. 2

23/06/2010

A new issue of the AUCO Czech Economic Review is available online. See table of contents:

Articles

Co-determination and Merger Incentives from Transfers of Wealth: Firm Owners vs. Workers
Coscollá, M. Paz; Granero, Luis M.
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (2), 123-138

Monetary Policy Transmission in Italy: A BVAR Analysis with Sign Restriction
Migliardo, Carlo
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (2), 139-167

Risk-Sharing Externalities and Its Implications for Equity Premium in an Infinite-Horizon Economy
Ohno, Hiroaki
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (2), 168-188

Interval Values for Multicriteria Cooperative Games
Pieri, Graziano; Pusillo, Lucia
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (2), 189-200

The Uncertainty in Voting Power: The Case of the Czech Parliament 1996–2004
Mielcová, Elena
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (2), 201-222

Book review

M. Luptáčik (2009): Mathematical Optimization and Economic Analysis
Doležel, Pavel
AUCO Czech Economic Review 4 (1), 223-229

To view, download, or recommend a single article, click on the article title. To unsubscribe, please fill in the form in the left column (Table of Contents Alert) on the journal homepage.


Access statistics by source

09/06/2010

We have compiled lifetime access statistics to our journal articles, using three sources that constantly monitor the use of articles in their depositories.

Total downloads
Source/Year (or Volume) 2007 2008 2009 2010
Journal homepage  1,745 3,631 4,687  704
RePEc  31  308  515  259
CEEOL  58 62 61 3
 
Total abstract views
Source/Year (or Volume) 2007 2008 2009 2010
Journal homepage  8,162 17,849 8,563  1,333
RePEc  158  1,480  2,137  1,118

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